Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Export Italy: here is what will happen in the next three years
Filed a 2013 negative for the Italian economy , but positive as regards the international trade of our country and , in particular, for flows of exports from the Bel Paese in the rest of the world, we fix the analytic horizon to the next three years trying to understand what will happen to exports tricolor between 2014 and 2016. A first fact to act as reassurance for all operators : the main analysis carried out in the field say that global flows of exports from Italy abroad will continue to grow in a good pace for all the subsequent three years ( at least), with an average rate that will rise to almost 8% per annum, and that will gradually grow with each passing quarter , reaching a value of over 530 billion euro. Over the next three years will also continue a positive trend already started and consolidated during 2013 : the satisfaction of increasingly specific questions , ideally positioning the Italian companies into new market niches. A position that we support , has been made possible mainly thanks to the high quality of productions made in Italy , able to intercept the evolution of global demand , and allowing you to meet the emerging demand basins in the new economies . But how will need to act, then, in the next three years? Below we have tried to summarize the main guidelines that should inspire traders in the hope that they can also serve as a starting point for discussion . (1) Reassess the geographical diversification . In recent years, more and more companies have preferred to abandon the mature markets to devote himself to the flow of demand from emerging markets . A prudent strategy and particularly successful , but that will have to be revised in the near term . Alas , in fact, underestimate the importance of mature markets and their chances of recovery in the coming months . On the other hand , it is obvious that you can not try to focus exclusively on the opportunities offered by emerging markets : as experienced in recent months, even the "new" major economies will experience periods of downsizing of their extraordinary growth. So , our advice is well diversified your target markets of reference, but do not underestimate absolutely mature markets , which for stability of demand and high volumes of imports , should be a priority part of your trade. In our opinion , it is worth to work in three key areas . The first should be relative to the group of emerging markets: above all, we believe that China and Brazil may constitute preferential outlets outside Europe , while India struggle to gain positions within the financial statements of Italian companies. Also started to bet on the most dynamic economies in the medium term , from Indonesia to Chile , from Nigeria to the Philippines. The second guideline is to look inside the old Continent "extended" : Switzerland , Romania, Russia , Poland, France , Germany and Turkey will certainly be trade partners of which should be taken into greater evaluation. Finally, a third strand , relative to mature markets and , in particular, to the historical trading partners : the recovery initiated by the United States should allow the North American market to be able to elect which macro- reference in the coming years . ( 2 ) Reconsider sector exposure . In addition to the above, val certainly worth reviewing its position in the fields of reference, and try to understand what will be the evolution of these sectors . Our view is that over the next three years, the mechanics, electronics , metallurgy, chemical industry and extractions , fail to provide adequate rewards to traders Italian . A little more effort should instead be done by all the companies belonging to the sectors of Made in Italy more traditional (food, furniture, clothing , etc.). : Opportunities for growth in the near future is guaranteed - especially for those points to income groups high - but have to work a little bit more than in the past , to find new niches and new markets , promotion and distribution .